Demand for beef (and proteins overall) is still strong, like Top Gun: Maverick numbers at the box office. And here's the glimmer of hope: the share of female cattle in the slaughter mix is declining—a sign the herd might be rebuilding. Cue the montage music. The catch? Pasture conditions (note the chart at top) aren’t playing nice yet, sitting below any mid-May levels we’ve seen during recent herd expansions (red bars = herd expansion). No rain, no gain.
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